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2018 AFL Round 12 Betting Preview – St Kilda vs Sydney

St Kilda v Sydney
Sat 7:25pm at Etihad Stadium
Best Bet: Sydney 1-39 ($2.20)
Value Bet: Kennedy 30+ Disposals/Ross 30+ Disposals ($4.30)
Player Prop: Lance Franklin 4+ Goals ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Jade Gresham

The sole Saturday night game for the round sees the Swans travel down to Melbourne to take on the Saints at Etihad Stadium. St. Kilda have certainly been more competitive over the past month, and improved their abysmal goal-kicking, but the loss of skipper Jarryn Geary in addition to the continued absence of Carlisle, Brown, Bruce and Gilbert hurts when you come up against a Sydney side that has won four on the trot. The Swans are sitting fourth on the ladder, but have quite a poor percentage compared to their rivals and will be eager to put a few points on a bottom tier side- but can St. Kilda defy all odds and upset the apple cart?

Form
St. Kilda (LLLLL) – Life as a St. Kilda supporter really would suck right about now. They haven’t won since Round 1, and that was against a Brisbane side that is sitting 17th of the ladder. At least they can take some solace in the fact they have FINALLY kicked more goals than behinds- and that’s happened two weeks in a row! Ben Dixon might even keep his job at this rate. To put a bit of positivity into this form analysis, Wolfie would like to highlight the efforts of Jack Steven- who is averaging 28.5 disposals, 6 clearances and 5 inside 50’s per game this season and just keeps plodding away, no matter what the situation.

Sydney (LWWWW) – The Swans have had a pretty cruisy time of it over the past 3 weeks, coming up against Fremantle, Brisbane and Carlton- and winning comfortable all 3 times. Josh Kennedy, Jake Lloyd and Jarrad McVeigh are all in sublime touch, and the development of young players like Will Hayward and Ben Ronke has given the Swans more strings to their bow. They’ve certainly had a couple of hiccups this season but they have dealt with the bottom-tier sides the way they needed to, and sometimes that can be the difference between Top 8 and Top 4.

Stats That Matter
– The Swans have won the past 8 meetings (with 5 of those 50+ margins)
– Lance Franklin has kicked 23 goals in 5 matches against St. Kilda as a Swan
– Sydney has won 13 of their last 14 matches at Etihad Stadium
– Both sides have had 3 of their last 4 matches go Overs
– Josh Kennedy is averaging 32 disposals per game in his last 4 against St. Kilda
– The Saints haven’t won since Round 1
– Sydney have won all 5 of their Away fixtures this year

Betting Data
2018 Line: St. Kilda- 4-7; Sydney- 5-6
2018 Over-Under: St. Kilda- 4-7; Sydney- 5-6

What To Expect
Wolfie is expecting a low-scoring game with the Swans to be too good for a Saints side that have forgotten how to win. Sydney have been a very strong away side this year (including beaten the ladder leaders in Perth) and a trip to Etihad Stadium, where they have a very strong record, shouldn’t pose them any problems. Logan Austin better hope the Swans midfielders aren’t continually pumping the ball in Buddy’s direction or he is in for a world of pain.

How It’s Shaping Up

Sydney by 19

Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Sydney 1-39 ($2.20)
Value Bet: Kennedy 30+ Disposals/Ross 30+ Disposals ($4.30)
Player Prop: Lance Franklin 4+ Goals ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Jade Gresham

2018 AFL Round 12 Betting Preview thanks to William Hill Australia.

St Kilda vs Sydney Comparison Betting Odds

Below we have AFL Round 12 comparison betting odds from leading Australian and International online sportsbooks for the game.