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2018 AFL Round 16 Betting Preview – Melbourne vs Fremantle



Melbourne v Fremantle
Sat 7:40pm at TIO Stadium
Best Bet: Melbourne -10.5 4th Quarter ($1.87)
Value Bet: Max Gawn 130+ Fantasy Points ($4.00)
Player Prop: Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals ($1.65)
First Goalscorer: Jesse Hogan

Footy heads up to Darwin on Saturday night, when the Dees take their home game to TIO Stadium to take on the Dockers. The Dees have fallen out of the Top 4, and are now in real danger of slipping out of the 8 if their form continues- and Simon Goodwin will be expecting a big response against an injury-depleted Freo side. A lot of commentary has surrounded their slower veterans and inexperienced key backs, but on paper they appear to match up very well with the Dockers and they will start 40-point favourites. Melbourne fans currently sitting at Mt. Buller sipping chardonnay will be desperately hoping the Demons of old aren’t returning, and nothing less than a big win with plenty of goals will suffice.

Form
Melbourne (WWLLL) – After being (prematurely) hyped up as genuine Flag contenders a month ago, Melbourne have fallen out of the Top 4 and have lost 3 in a row. Their defence has looked very vulnerable, in part because the ball is coming in without much pressure, with their midfield badly beaten and exposed for leg speed. Figuring out how to get the best output from Hogan and McDonald has proved tricky in recent weeks, given the temptation has been to push both up the ground when the back half is continually getting exposed. They surely need to bring some players in that have outside dash, because opposition coaches will have noticed with glee how the Saints exposed them last round.

Fremantle (LLWWL) – As if losing to the 17th-placed Lions in Perth wasn’t bad enough; they will now spend a significant amount of time without their two star players, Sandilands and Fyfe in the side with both succumbing to soft-tissue injuries. Brisbane was in control from the start, and at the start it looked like the Dockers had expected to win and were surprised by the endeavour shown by the young Lion cubs. Ross Lyon mentioned post-game that their egos were severely dented, and finding a way to repair that on the road, where they have been very poor this year, will be tough.

Stats That Matter
– Freo have won 8 of the past 9 meetings
– Lachie Neale averages 29 disposals and 122 Fantasy Points per game against Melbourne
– The Dees are 5-1 on the Over/Under in Home games
– Max Gawn has had 110+ Fantasy Points in 10 games this season
– Melbourne have won 10 of 14 fourth quarters this year (+71 points) while Fremantle have won just 3 (-98 points)
– The Dockers are 2-4 ATS in their past 6 matches
– Clayton Oliver is averaging 29 disposals per game this year

Betting Data

2018 Line: Melbourne- 8-6; Fremantle- 7-7
2018 Over-Under: Melbourne- 8-6; Fremantle- 4-10

What To Expect
The Dees have looked woeful over the past few weeks, but there is no better way to arrest that form slump by a circuit breaker up in Darwin against a Freo side missing Fyfe and Sandi. The Wolf is expecting Melbourne to play themselves back into form with an attacking clinic over the Dockers, and they could put up some big numbers late in the game as the younger Freo bodies tire.

How It’s Shaping Up
Melbourne by 35

Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Melbourne -10.5 4th Quarter ($1.87)
Value Bet: Max Gawn 130+ Fantasy Points ($4.00)
Player Prop: Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals ($1.65)
First Goalscorer: Jesse Hogan

2018 AFL Round 16 Betting Preview thanks to William Hill Australia.

Melbourne vs Fremantle Comparison Betting Odds

Below we have AFL Round 16 comparison betting odds from leading Australian and International online sportsbooks for the game.