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2018 AFL Round 20 Betting Preview – Carlton vs GWS



Carlton v GWS
Sun 1:10pm at Etihad Stadium
Best Bet: GWS 1st Half Line -23.5 ($1.87)
Value Bet: Whitfield 30+ Disposals/Cameron 4+ Goals
Player Prop: Josh Kelly 120+ Fantasy Points
First Goalscorer: Jeremy Cameron

Sunday afternoon AFL action kicks off at Etihad Stadium with what appears to be a lopsided clash between the Blues and the Giants. The Ferrari has been in cruise-mode over the past few weeks, getting their Finals chances back on track thanks to their mix of silky ball movement and tough contested footy. They’ll like their chances against a Carlton side that is sitting last, after winning just 2 games for the season, and given the huge gulf in class between these two sides it could be a massacre.

Form
Carlton (LLLLW) – The Blues finally broke their run of 9 straight losses when they comfortably accounted for the Suns by 35 points up at Metricon last round. Patrick Cripps and Marc Murphy were absolutely phenomenal, Charlie Curnow had another 10 mark game while the #6 pick from the 2016 draft, Sam Petrevski-Seton produced his most consistent game to date. Preceding that, however, was 3 successive 60+ point losses and it can’t be glossed over. This side needs to pull out the run and spread they showed against the Suns more than once a season.

GWS (WLWWW) – Their season was hanging by a knifes edge already, so when they lost Jeremy Cameron for 5 weeks most footy pundits wrote the Giants off. Well, said pundits will now be eating their words with the Giants looking like they will now make the Top 4! They’ve now won 7 of their last 8, including wins against two sides in the Top 4; Richmond and Port- and two home games coming up it isn’t hard to imagine them winning the next 3 in a row. Lachie Whitfield has been particularly impressive over the past month, with three 30+ possession games in a row- though the highlight is never the quantity of his touches, but the quality. It’s hard to tell whether he is a left or right footer because he is just so damn good!

Stats That Matter
– GWS have won 4 of the past 5 meetings by an average of 55 points
– Carlton are 4-1 on the Over/Under in their past 5 matches
– Patrick Cripps is averaging 124 Fantasy Points per game over the past month
– The Blues have won just 4 second quarters this season (-215 points)
– Jeremy Cameron has kicked 16 goals in his last 4 games against Carlton
– The Giants have had 4 consecutive games go Unders
– Dylan Shiel is averaging 32 disposals per game in his last 3 against the Blues
– GWS have won 7 of their last 8 matches

Betting Data

2018 Line: Carlton- 9-9; GWS- 6-12
2018 Over-Under: Carlton- 10-8; GWS- 6-12

What To Expect

The Wolf is predicting things to get messy for the Blues. They might have some competitive patches in games, but it is always when the game is already lost. They have been starting very poorly, and a side as skilful as the Giants will take full advantage of that on the fast Etihad deck. The Blues are the 2nd worst side in the comp for uncontested ball, and you can just see Whitfield, Kelly, Shiel and co. picking them off and moving it swiftly downfield. Look out Carlton, the Orange Tsunami is coming!

How It’s Shaping Up

GWS by 37
Recommended Bets

Best Bet: GWS 1st Half Line -23.5 ($1.87)
Value Bet: Whitfield 30+ Disposals/Cameron 4+ Goals
Player Prop: Josh Kelly 120+ Fantasy Points
First Goalscorer: Jeremy Cameron

2018 AFL Round 20 Betting Preview thanks to William Hill Australia.

Carlton vs GWS Comparison Betting Odds

Below we have AFL Round 20 comparison betting odds from leading Australian and International online sportsbooks for the game.