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2018 AFL Round 20 Betting Preview – Hawthorn vs Essendon

Hawthorn v Essendon
Sat 1:45pm at MCG
Best Bet: Hawthorn WIN ($2.05)
Value Bet: HT/FT- Essendon/Hawthorn ($7.25)
Player Prop: Tom Mitchell 8+ Tackles ($3.00)
First Goalscorer: Isaac Smith

Super Saturday begins with another MCG blockbuster, with the Hawks looking to consolidate their spot in the 8 when they come up against an absolutely flying Bombers side that have won their last 3 matches by an average of 39 points. In their meeting at the ‘G earlier this year, Hawthorn’s superior ball-use won out in the end, though Essendon appear to have patched up their dangerous 3rd quarter lapses since then. The Hawks are a far stronger side at the MCG (5/7 this season) than the Bombers, but either way this is two big Victorian clubs coming up against each other with everything to play for- and it promises to be a beauty.

Form
Hawthorn (LWLWW) – The Hawks have now climbed to 7th (12 percentage points above 9th placed Sydney) thanks to two dominant (and percentage boosting!) wins over cellar dwellars Carlton and Fremantle. Tom Mitchell has been completely unstoppable, impacting all around the ground with his two-way running and on the scoreboard, while the (somehow) underrated Luke Breust has continued to prove why he is currently the best small forward in the game, with 3 hauls of 4+ goals over his last 4 games. Promisingly, the defence has stood up well in the absence of James Sicily, but truth be told they haven’t been tested too much. Essendon will be the real test for Frawley, Stratton, Hardwick and co.

Essendon (WLWWW) – They secured their 8th victory in 10 starts with a mighty impressive win over the Swans, but it is enough to claw themselves back from their abhorrent 2-6 start to the year? The injury-enforced absence of Joe Daniher has coincided (sorry mate!) with the sides return to form, with the shackles released and the forward line looking far less predictable. One of the players to stand up in his absence has been former Geelong player Mitch Brown, who has thrived in his new forward line role and provided a fantastic lead-up marking target. The midfield has also stood up and become more accountable, though their lack of a quality inside ball-winner is still telling at times.

Stats That Matter

– Hawthorn have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
– The Bombers have won just 1 of their 6 games at the ‘G this season
– Tom Mitchell has had 40+ disposals & 150+ Fantasy Points in 4 of his last 5 games
– The Hawks are 4-1 on the Over/Under in their past 5 games
– Dyson Heppell averages 109 Fantasy Points per game against Hawthorn
– Essendon have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 matches
– Devon Smith is averaging 10 tackles per game over the past month
– The Bombers are -144 points in third quarters while Hawthorn are +195

Betting Data
2018 Line: Hawthorn- 11-7; Essendon- 9-9
2018 Over-Under: Hawthorn- 8-10; Essendon- 6-12

What To Expect
The Wolf is wary of the Bombers, as many of the Finals bound sides are- but he is siding with the Hawks in this one based on the fact the game is at the MCG. The Bombers attacking game plan is far more suited to the smaller confines of Etihad; and they haven’t had much success at the ‘G this season. The Hawks, on the other hand, will look to control the ball with their pinpoint kicking and look to be a reasonable H2H price. Should be a close game but going with the experience in this one.

How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn by 11

Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Hawthorn WIN ($2.05)
Value Bet: HT/FT- Essendon/Hawthorn ($7.25)
Player Prop: Tom Mitchell 8+ Tackles ($3.00)
First Goalscorer: Isaac Smith

2018 AFL Round 20 Betting Preview thanks to William Hill Australia.

Hawthorn vs Essendon Comparison Betting Odds

Below we have AFL Round 20 comparison betting odds from leading Australian and International online sportsbooks for the game.