NAB Cup gets underway tonight and below have the 2012 Week 1 NAB Cup Betting Previews, Odds and Tips from Sportingbet Australia. For comparative NAB cup odds from leading bookmakers please see out previous post that has updated odds.

FORMAT: Teams are pooled into groups of 3 and the six winners from each pool, plus the two sides with the best records among the remaining clubs, will qualify for round two of the competition, allowing for a traditional quarter-final set-up of eight teams, before progressing into semi-finals and a Grand Final.

Pool 1: Friday 17/2 – commences at 6.45pm (AEDT) at Etihad Stadium, Melbourne

First match: Richmond ($2.18) v North Melbourne ($1.68)

Finally! Footy is back – and the AFL’s version of Twenty20 cricket kicks off on Friday night with a match between two teams who placed in the bottom nine last year.

Richmond suffered a huge pre-season blow last week when star midfielder Brett Deledio was diagnosed with a grade one hamstring tear. He will not play on Friday night and is expected to miss another three to four weeks of action. However don’t fret too much Tiger fans, because he should be right to play in Round 1 of the home-and-away season. There were some good signs in their recent intra-club match though, with recruit defenders Steve Morris and Brandon Ellis impressing off half-back.

North Melbourne isn’t without its injury concerns as well. Classy midfielder Daniel Wells is still on the comeback trail after suffering life-threatening blood clots in his lungs. Other key players such as Cam Richardson and Majak Daw are also on the Kangaroos’ injury, but the latter might be on sidelines for a little bit longer after being suspended by the club for lying last week.

The Tigers will come out with plenty of enthusiasm and energy on Friday night, but the Roos’ bigger bodies and edge in experience should get them over the line.

BEST BET:  North Melbourne -6.5 ($2.00)

Second match: North Melbourne ($3.00) v Hawthorn ($1.38)

The Kangaroos will have a quick turnaround before playing their next match against the team that has been on the lips of every AFL punter during the pre-season.

Hawthorn has not only been heavily backed to win this year’s NAB Cup, it has also been predicted to challenge for the 2012 premiership. And with the list it has got, there’s no reason why it can’t go all the way. The Hawks have had a bit of luck on the injury front during the pre-season too, leaving them with largely a healthy list ahead of Friday night’s matches. However they will still be without Jarryd Roughead and Stephen Gilham, who are still recovering from their long-term injuries, while David Hale rolled his ankle at training on Monday and will miss both games on Friday night.

The key player for North Melbourne in this game will be Lindsay Thomas. The small forward, who has been renowned for his inaccuracy in front of goal over recent years, was in magnificent touch during the Kangaroo’s intra-club match at Eureka Stadium in Ballarat last week, booting four goals in an eye-catching performance. Forgotten ruckman Hamish McIntosh and mature-age midfielder Sam Gibson were also impressive and should play a big role on Friday night.

But that form in the intra-club match will equate to nothing against the firing Hawks on Friday night. Expect the boys in brown and gold to have the fresh legs, particularly through the midfield, and walk all over the Roos.

BEST BET: Hawthorn -10.5 ($1.90)

Third match: Hawthorn ($1.30) v Richmond ($3.45)

Two great tradition rivals in the Hawks and the Tigers will conclude Friday night’s proceedings at Etihad Stadium.

With almost a full list to choose from, expect Hawthorn to play the majority of its senior players at some stage throughout the night. But one young player to keep your eye on is Tom Schneider, who is currently on the Hawks’ rookie list. Schneider played a few NAB Cup games in 2011 and impressed many with his ability to find the footy. Expect the number 45 brown and gold jumper to feature heavily once again.

It will be also interesting to see how new Richmond recruit Ivan Maric performs. The former Adelaide ruckman, who was picked up by the Tigers during the 2011 trade week, is not the most skilful player in the competition, but above all he competes and throws his big frame around. Maric will make a massive difference to the Tigers’ setup around the ground and will certainly ease the load on the younger group of ruckmen.

But not even Maric’s competitive nature or Trent Cotchin’s outstanding form in last week’s intra-club hit out will be enough to get the Tigers over the line here. Expect in-form forwards Lance Franklin and Jack Gunston to run amuck up forward and put the Tigers’ NAB Cup hopes to bed.

BEST BET:

Hawthorn -15.5 ($2.00)

Pool 2: Saturday 18/2 – commences 7.15pm (AEDT) at Blacktown International Sportspark, Sydney

First match: GWS Giants ($8.25) v Western Bulldogs ($1.07)

The footy community will get its first look at the AFL’s newest club on Saturday night when it takes on a club that has been worked incredibly hard by its new coach during the off-season.

Blacktown will once again host GWS during the first round of the NAB Cup, just like it did last year. The Giants are reasonably healthy on the injury front, however the man they hoped would kick the bulk of their goals this year, Jonathon Patton, is out until May as he recovers from knee surgery. Fellow forward Jeremy Cameron won’t play too due to a broken jaw, while Dylan Shiel had his appendix out last week and will be given time off to recover.

It has been well documented that new Western Bulldogs coach Brendan McCartney has worked his troops extremely hard over the summer, so it will be fascinating to see how they run out their two games on Saturday night. Three key players are not expected to take part in the matches, with Lindsay Gilbee (calf), Dale Morris (leg) and Justin Sherman (finger) all recovering from injury. Brian Lake and Adam Cooney are expected to play, but how much game time they will get remains to be seen.

All the Giants want to be this year is competitive, and this year starts on Saturday night. Unfortunately they won’t be competitive enough against the workmanlike Bulldogs, who will run away with this one easily.

BEST BET: Western Bulldogs ($1.07)

Second match: Western Bulldogs ($2.55) v Collingwood ($1.50)

Even a man who is both deaf and blind could tell you this clash will clearly be the match of the night.

Western Bulldogs should not have had too many issues with the Giants the previous match, so expect the boys in red, white and blue to be fit and firing for their second match. The Bulldogs’ coaching staff is reasonably new, which means Saturday night will be the first night they will work together under pressure in the coaches’ box. Speaking of working together under pressure for the first time, Clay Smith and Tom Campbell will get their first taste of the AFL spotlight after outstanding performances in the club’s intra-club match last week.

And so Collingwood returns for yet another campaign, but this time it will be out for revenge after losing the 2011 Grand Final to Geelong. However the Magpies will begin 2012 without a number of key players, namely Ben Reid (shoulder), Nathan Brown (knee), Alan Didak (hamstring) and Ben Johnson (calf) and Andrew Krakouer (personal reasons). Yet the Pies will be keen to get some game time into some of their younger players and manage their senior players diligently as they try to win back-to-back NAB Cup titles.

This will definitely be the closest match of the night. Expect the Bulldogs to really take it up to the Pies in the opening few minutes. But the Dogs are a little thin down back, so expect the likes of Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes to present strongly and kick a big enough score to win the game.

BEST BET: Collingwood ($1.50)

Third match: Collingwood ($1.02) v GWS Giants ($13.00)

In the words of the Magpies’ theme song, this will be a cakewalk.

As mentioned previously, Collingwood will be keen to give some of its younger players a taste of AFL action on Saturday night. Peter Yagmoor, American Shae McNamara, John Ceglar and agile ruckman Jarrod Witts are all set for plenty of game time, especially against the Giants. However an old ‘new’ face in Marty Clarke will not play on Saturday night after he suffered a minor soft tissue injury in training recently. Small forward Jamie Elliott did the same thing.

While GWS will be without its star recruit in Patton, it has plenty of other draftees that will surely turn a few heads in the coming years. While we all know plenty about Rhys Palmer, Tom Scully and Callan Ward, there is plenty to like about Stephen Coniglio, Dom Tyson, Anthony Miles, Tom Downie and Devon Smith, who all impressed coach Kevin Sheedy in last week’s intra-club clash. Oh, and who could forget Israel Folau? Plenty of eyes will be on him too.

Let’s not waste your time or money here. One word: Collingwood.

BEST BET: Collingwood ($1.02)

Pool 3: Sunday 19/2 – commences 7.45pm (AEDT) at Patersons Stadium, Perth

First match: West Coast Eagles ($1.45) v Essendon ($2.75)

Pool 3 kicks off with what should be a fierce contest out west.

West Coast will go into Sunday’s games without a full strength list. The biggest concern for the Eagles surrounds veteran and Norm Smith medallist Andrew Embley, who popped his shoulder out in a competitive drill recently. He could be out for six weeks, meaning he will miss the entire NAB Cup and maybe even the start of the home-and-away season. Fellow veteran Daniel Kerr might also miss Sunday’s matches due to a finger injury suffered before Christmas, while raw ruckman Nic Naitanui is probably running at three-quarter pace after shoulder surgery.

On the other hand, Essendon has had its fair share of injury concerns over the pre-season. Scott Gumbleton (back) and Brent Prismall (knee) are out for the next eight weeks, while Michael Hurley (hamstring) isn’t expected to play until the end of the NAB Cup. Gumbleton and Hurley are huge losses for the Bombers because not only are they quality players, but they also make up the spine of the team.

The Bombers surprised many in their 2011 NAB Cup campaign, progressing all the way through to the grand final. With coach James Hird feeling much more comfortable after a second off-season, he will have his boys primed for this match against the Eagles. Tipping a mini upset.

BEST BET: Essendon ($2.75)

Second match: Fremantle ($1.52) v Essendon ($2.50)

The Bombers will have to back up from their match against the Eagles quickly as they prepare to face one of the most talked about teams over the pre-season.

Fremantle has been tipped to be the big improvers in 2012 after an injury-riddled 2011. However those injury demons are still lurking. The Dockers will start the NAB Cup without best and fairest winner David Mundy, who hasn’t trained much over the off-season due to a leg injury that derailed his 2011 season. They will also be without Anthony Morabito, whose recovery from a knee injury is taking longer than first thought. Michael Walters is still serving a club-imposed suspension handed down by WAFL club Swan Districts and will not play too.

Expect plenty of new and exciting Essendon faces across the two games in Perth on Sunday. Midfielder Elliott Kavanagh, the Bombers’ top pick in last year’s national draft, has been mightily impressive on the training track, while Courtenay Dempsey has recovered well from his season-ending knee injury at the start of 2011. Also expect plenty out of Jake Melksham, Ben Howlett and Travis Colyer as they look to become permanent members of Essendon’s midfield this season.

With new coach Ross Lyon at the helm, you get the feeling the Dockers might be a little hungrier on Sunday night. Plenty of fringe players will be looking to impress to cement their spots in Round 1. It might take a while for the game plan to kick in, but expect Fremantle’s tenacity at the footy to be the difference in the end.

BEST BET:  Fremantle ($1.52)

Third match: West Coast Eagles ($1.80) v Fremantle ($2.00)

The final match of week one sees the two western derby combatants go head-to-head under the Subiaco lights.

While it’s well known West Coast doesn’t always give 100 per cent effort during the pre-season (who does really?), there will be plenty of players to watch over the coming weeks. From all reports, rising star midfielders Luke Shuey and Andrew Gaff have been flying over the pre-season and have bulked up a little too. Draftees Fraser McInnes and the classy Murray Newman have both trained strongly as well. Coach John Worsfold will want to kick off 2012 in fine style and prove to the AFL world that his team can back up its outstanding 2011 season.

There are also a few Fremantle players that will be keen to impress coach Lyon from the outset too. Midfielder Lachie Neale and defender Tom Sheridan both impressed during the Dockers’ intra-club hit-out late last week and will surely get game time on Sunday. Also expect former St Kilda defender Zac Dawson to be heavily scrutinised as he pulls on a purple jumper for the first time.

But the difference for this game could be in the ruck. Aaron Sandilands should dominate, because ruckmen will not be permitted to make contact with their opponent before bounces and throw-ins. And with Naitanui and Dean Cox not quite 100 percent, expect the much leaner Sandilands to give his midfielders first use of the footy and for the Dockers to run out winners in a close one.

BEST BET:  Fremantle ($2.00)

Friday the 17th of February 2011 we see the start of the AFL pre season competition the NAB cup. The format is the same as last year where there are three games in the one session. Teams are pooled into groups of 3 and the six winners from each pool, plus the two sides with the best records among the remaining clubs, will qualify for round two of the competition, allowing for a traditional quarter-final set-up of eight teams, before progressing into semi-finals and a Grand Final. All AFL clubs are competing. Below we also have the 2012 NAB cup betting odds from sportsbooks offering NAB Cup betting online. You can also compare NAB cup betting odds.

Specific Rules

• Nine-point goals from 5-0 m.
• Umpires only bounce the ball to start a quarter after a goal.

New Rules

• Teams will have two interchanges and two substitute players.
• Free kicks will be paid against any player who drags or holds the ball under an opponent.
• A free kick will be paid against the last team to dispose of the ball with a kick or handball before it goes out of bounds.
• Ruckmen will not be permitted to make contact with their opponent before bounces and throw-ins.
• Boundary and goal umpires can pay free kicks at stoppages.
• Goal umpires may consult for contentious scoring decisions.

So the teams have been grouped as follows:

POOL 1 – Playing at Etihad Stadium Friday Feb 17

Richmond

North Melbourne

Hawthorn

POOL 2 – Playing at Blackwood Sportspark Saturday Feb 18

Greater Western Sydney

Western Bulldogs

Collingwood

POOL 3 – Playing at Patersons Stadium Sunday Feb 19

Essendon

West Coast Eagles

Fremantle

POOL 4 – Playing at Etihad Stadium Friday Feb 24

St Kilda

Sydney

Geelong

POOL 5 – Playing at Metricon Stadium Saturday Feb 25

Gold Coast

Melbourne

Brisbane Lions

Pool 6 – Playing at AAMI Stadium Sunday Feb 26
Adelaide

Carlton

Port Adelaide

North Melbourne

2012 AFL NAB Cup Betting Odds

February is upon us and yes the start of the long awaited 2012 AFL season is not far away. However February each year brings us the start of the Pre season competition the NAB Cup. Before we look at the NAB Cup lets have a look at the early 2012 AFL Premiership odds.

Hawthorn is the hot favourite for the 2012 flag according to punters.  The cash is already flowing for the Hawks who are responsible for around  40% of the betting to date according to TAB Sportsbet’s Matt Jenkins.  TAB  Sportsbet has reported bets of $4600 at $7, $4000 at $7 and $500 at $6.50.  Both Carlton and West Coast are also favoured by punters with bets of $8000 at $15 for the Eagles who have ended up at $13 and a massive $50,000 bet at $1.40 for Carlton to make the eight.  Sportingbet Australia has also seen the Hawks emerge as a clear punters’ favourite.  Sportingbet’s Michael Sullivan reported odds of $7.50 into $5.50 and were best backed against the Blues at $10 into $8.

The Brownlow odds to date are tipped towards Gary Ablett at $11 according to Sportingbet, who also saw an $8000 bet placed on Buddy Franklin at $3.65 for the Coleman medal.  Centrebet has reported Scott Pendlebury as the leading Brownlow contender at $8, ousting Chris Judd at $9 followed by Trent Cotchin at $51 into $31 as the next best-backed outside contender. However Centrebet’s Neil Evans noted that, although Pendlebury may be a hot favourite for the Brownlow, punters are not feeling it for the Pies, who are out from $3.10 to $3.30.

In brief the top 5 punters’ favourites for the flag are: Hawthorn (40% at $6); West Coast (17% at $13); Carlton (13% at $9); Fremantle (7% at 26); Collingwood (5% at $3.25). The rest of the teams follow with: Geelong (5% at $4.50); St Kilda (3% at $13); Essendon (3% at $21); Western Bulldogs (1% at $51); Sydney (1% at $26); Melbourne (1% at $81); GWS (1% at $501); Richmond (0.5% at $67); North Melbourne (0.5% at $51); Adelaide (0.5% at $34); Brisbane (0.5% at $151); Port Adelaide (0.5% at $251); Gold Coast (0.5% at $251).

Check out all the early 2012 AFL premiership odds here from our comparison Sportsbook odds Engine here.

Congratulations to Geelong for winning the 2011 AFL Grand Final and ultimately the 2011 AFL premiership. As for the 2011 Grand Final Betting, it’s been a tough week for bookmakers who are trying to catch their breaths after Saturday’s grand final victory by the Cats. Punters have been backing Geelong all week and TAB Sportsbet’s Matthew Jenkins said that they opened at $2 starting the Grand Final match at $1.77.  These odds brought in one bet of $125,000 just before the kick off. Sportingbet Australia saw similar activity with Geelong at $2.05 opening at $1.80 pre-game.

Live betting was even more of a nightmare for the bookmakers.  Sportingbet Australia’s Michael Sullivan said that in the second quarter Geelong blew out to $3.40 while trailing Collingwood by 16 points with plenty of bets placed at that price.  There was, however, one unfortunate punter who blew $30,000 on the Pies at $1.30.  There were also bets on Travis Varcoe to kick the first goal staring at $17 into $15.

Sportsbet.com.au was the only bookmaker that was happy with the Cats win after one punter lost $500,000 on the Pies.  Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane said that no one wanted to bet on the Pies initially but then on Friday one hapless punter placed $500,000 on Collingwood at $2.10.

Geelong began the 2011 season at $8 and was never better than $8.50 with TAB Sportsbet.  The punters were not only on the money with the match winner, but also with Jimmy Bartel’s Norm Smith medal win.  Betstar’s Nick Heathcote said that Bartel was backed at $15 into $9 and that they received bets of $2,000 at $15 and $1,500 at $9 leaving a few happy punters with some nice bank balances.

Regardless of last weekend’s loss the Pies are favourites for next year’s flag with TAB Sportsbet currently placing them at $3.50.  Tab Sportsbet’s Matthew Jenkins said that Collingwood limped into the Grand Final this year whereas Geelong seemed to have reached their peek as they entered the finals race.  However the Pies have some strong young players coming through next year whereas Geelong have a much older line-up and this should see the odds in the Pies favour.

2011 AFL GRAND FINAL HIGHLIGHTS

Below we have highlights of the grand final between Collingwood and Geelong.

Collingwood v Geelong

12.9.81 — 18.11.119

www.youtube.com/watch?v=jikkqu7wJ6Q

Click below on the game for updated 2011 AFL Grand Final Betting  odds.

Collingwood vs Geelong

The last game of the 2011 season and we have the Grand Final between the best teams of the 2011 season. This game will be close and if the weather turns out as predicted for Saturday afternoon with rain, hail it could be anyone’s game. A real winter battle between the two heavyweights. Below we have the 2011 AFL Grand Final betting preview by Sportingbet.

Collingwood v Geelong: Saturday 1/10 – 2.30pm at MCG.
It’s here – finally. The big daddy of them all. And fittingly, the two best teams of the 2011 season will headline the AFL’s main event.

RECENT FORM:
The first preliminary final was a night of tears, frustration and memories for Collingwood – luckily it was on the right side of the ledger when the final siren sounded.

The Magpies were almost pushed to the point of no return, but a 5.2 to 2.0 final term ensured they snatched a dramatic three-point win over a gallant Hawthorn right at the death. They were lucky to win for all sorts of reasons, but mainly due to the Hawks’ inaccurate kicking for goal and injuries suffered throughout the game. Coach Mick Malthouse knew his team had escaped jail and shed tears of raw emotion after the game, knowing he had one more game left as Collingwood coach.

A few standout players pushed Collingwood over the line in the final term. Travis Cloke was colossal, booting three goals from 11 marks and eight inside 50’s, Dane Swan literally ran the whole night to end up with 32 touches (18 contested) and a miracle goal, and Luke Ball and Scott Pendlebury were instrumental through the middle.

While Collingwood fans were forced into a cardiac arrest on Friday night, Geelong supporters hit the dance floor instead, with their team cruising to one of the easiest finals victories you’ll ever see.

The Cats produced a dominant 7.3 third term to run out comfortable 48-point winners over a tired West Coast outfit. After an inaccurate start in front of goal, the Cats booted 10 of 13 goals in the second and third term to take an unassailable 56-point lead into the last change. They had 12 individual goal kickers, with James Podsiasly leading the way with three.

Veteran full-back Matthew Scarlett was outstanding for Geelong when the game was on the line, repeatedly cutting off the Eagles’ attacking thrusts and rebounding from defensive 50 with aggression. Andrew Mackie (27 touches) also did a great job floating across half-back, while James Kelly (29 with 13 contested) and Joel Selwood (25 and eight clearances) were brilliant in the engine room.

HOW COLLINGWOOD CAN WIN:
As skipper Nick Maxwell said during the week, the Pies need to become less predictable going inside forward 50. They can’t just bomb the ball in and hope Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes will clunk marks. Why? Because they won’t. Geelong’s backline is more organised than the 2000 Sydney Olympics and will punish you for poor delivery.

Therefore, someone must play on six-time All-Australian Matthew Scarlett and force him to be accountable. Someone like Steele Sidebottom as a small, or Leigh Brown as the tall, might have to play a sacrificial role on the Cats champ, because he can’t be allowed to roam free as the quarterback of the backline.

HOW GEELONG CAN WIN:
One thing certainly in Geelong’s favour is its 2011 record over the Black and White army. The Cats have played and beaten Collingwood twice – and those were the Magpies’ only losses of the season. On both occasions, Chris Scott’s men dominated the inside 50 count and made the normally unflappable Pies defence look vulnerable. Brad Ottens dominated in the ruck in both matches and with Darren Jolly under a fitness cloud and Trent West now providing excellent back-up, the Cats will look to dominate in that area.

Also Cameron Ling must make Swan, Pendlebury, Ball or Dale Thomas accountable. Most would say Ling should go to Brownlow medallist Swan, but if Pendlebury isn’t getting the footy, the Pies are less likely to win due to the quality of his possessions.

SO, WHO WINS?
This isn’t just a Grand Final to determine the champion team of 2011. This is a Grand Final to determine the best team of the modern era.

Barring St Kilda, Collingwood and Geelong have been the two standout teams over the past five to six years. To have stayed in the top four for so long is a credit to both clubs’ football departments and playing lists.

Having said that, both teams have plenty to lose on Saturday. If the Cats fall short, they would’ve failed to win a premiership in three seasons in which they went 21-1, 20-2, and 17-5 in the home-and-away rounds. But if the Pies lose, they would’ve wasted one of the most dominant home-and-away seasons in history, after being as short as $2 favourites for the flag.

Amazingly, Saturday’s match will be the Cats’ fourth Grand Final in five years, after winning in 2007 and 2009 and famously losing in 2008. As Meatloaf once sang, ‘two out of three ain’t bad’, but the Cats will know three out of four is even better.

But this Collingwood group certainly knows what it takes to win a Grand Final. In fact they had to play two in 2010 to get the ultimate AFL prize, so that experience will give them confidence.

The midfield battle will be electric: Swan, Pendlebury, Ball, Thomas and Wellingham versus Selwood, Bartel, Kelly, Chapman and Ling. Both teams have solid back lines who work well together as units. The Pies might be slightly ahead up forward, but Tom Hawkins’ form over the past couple of weeks has been promising.

There will be plenty of great stories if either team gets up: Andrew Krakouer’s journey from jail to grand final glory, Leon Davis’ rejuvenation in defence, Trent West’s arrival as a genuine ruckman, Chris Scott’s sensational first year as senior coach, and Michael Malthouse’s sensational final year as senior coach. Newspaper writers must be licking their lips thinking about the potential plots.

After such long periods of success, both teams will go into this game with outstanding self-belief in their own ability, mental strength and tactics.

But you get the feeling there’s one last hoorah left in this champion Geelong team.

Three-time premiership coach Leigh Matthews says a team’s form over the four weeks prior to a match is a true representation of where they are at. Anything before that is history.

If we simply isolate the past four weeks, Collingwood has lost the energetic tenaciousness that saw it consistently overwhelm opponent after opponent for the majority of the last two seasons.

Conversely, the Cats have probably been the most in-form team over the past three weeks. They’ve accounted for two genuine finals contenders – Hawthorn and West Coast – with relative ease, while the Pies have had to struggle right to the finish line against the same pair to earn the same results over the same teams.

Twelve months ago, many had written off Geelong, marking them as a team at the end of their era and ready for decline. But they’ve peaked at the right time. They’re in sensational shape and back to their best. Coach Chris Scott has his boys trained to the minute.

Tipping Geelong to win a classic Grand Final and cement its spot as one of the greatest teams in the history of our great game.

BEST BET:
Geelong by 1-24 ($3.55)

NORM SMITH MEDAL:
Jimmy Bartel ($10) – The 27-year-old is made for the big stage and is set for a big game. He has never been able to reach the heights of his Brownlow medal year of 2007, but you get the feeling he’s going to have a real impact. Expect Bartel to win plenty of contested ball and kick a couple of crucial goals to get the Cats over the line.

FIRST GOAL SCORER:
Paul Chapman ($21)

2011 AFL Grand Final Betting Bonuses

To celebrate the Grand Final Sportingbet Australia our preferred betting partner are offering some fantastic bonuses this weekend such as the following:

1. Sign Up Deposit Bonus -- Up to $200
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Place a minimum $10 bet on an eligible market in the 2011 AFL Grand Final and receive a 50% bonus* on your winnings if your bet gets up. Eligible markets:
- Last Goal Scorer
- Wire to Wire
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3. Best on ground Player Bonus
Place a minimum $10 bet on the Norm Smith Medal Winner (Final Field) market in the 2011 AFL Grand Final and receive a 20% bonus* on your winnings if your bet gets up.

2011 AFL Grand Final Video Betting Preview

www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdSY7zD-zGQ

Collingwood vs Hawthorn
Geelong vs West Coast

We are down to the final 4 teams for the season with one game away from the coveted Grand Final spot. Although on paper and the betting odds have two clear favourites in Collingwood and Geelong, any team can win on the day. The pressure will be on Collingwood and Geelong to perform as they have been favourites all season. Whoever wins this weekend will no doubt provide us a great epic Grand Final. Below we have the AFL Preliminary Finals betting preview by Sportingbet.

Collingwood v Hawthorn: Friday 23/9 – 7.45pm at MCG.
Two of the proudest, strongest and most heavily supported clubs in the AFL will go head-to-head in a final for the first time since 1978 on Friday night.

RECENT FORM:
Phew – the only word that was on the lips of Collingwood supporters after the first week of the finals.

Despite having 113 more disposals, 22 more clearances and 22 more marks, the Magpies only defeated West Coast by 20 points. However they can thank their two best midfielders in Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury for the victory. Swan didn’t stop working all game, finishing with 43 touches, nine clearances, nine inside 50’s and a goal, while Pendlebury had 38 touches and six tackles. Harry O’Brien was also instrumental off half-back, keeping Mark LeCras quiet while also repeatedly driving his team forward with penetrating kicks. Heath Shaw gathered 30 touches and 10 marks in his first game back from an eight-week suspension.

Hawthorn saved itself from the ultimate embarrassment last weekend with a solid victory over Sydney.

The Hawks avoided a straight sets exit with a 36-point victory over a gallant Swans outfit. It was the Hawks’ first finals victory since they beat Geelong in the 2008 Grand Final. Josh Gibson played the game of his life, recording an AFL-record 21 spoils and was domineering in shutting down all six opponents he played on throughout the night – including Adam Goodes. Star forward Lance Franklin, who went into the game under an injury cloud, kicked three goals in the final term to seal the game and, most importantly, laid six tackles. The Hawks’ two gun leaders in Luke Hodge (27 touches and one goal) and Sam Mitchell (29 touches) were also influential.

WHO WINS?
When these two sides last met in Round 15 this season, Collingwood won by 41 points. But things have changed dramatically since then – for both teams.

Over their past two games, the Pies have shown they are a tad vulnerable. Before their unconvincing loss to West Coast, they copped a 98-point thumping from Geelong in Round 22. Perhaps they’re not as invincible as we originally thought.

And it’s clear the Hawks have improved dramatically too. Since Round 15, they have won nine of their past 10 games. They’ve returned to their unsociable best, while also perfecting their short kick game plan at the same time.

The recent statistics between these two sides are fascinating. Hawthorn has defeated Collingwood in five of the past seven matches. However the Pies’ loss in Round 22, 2010 was a dead rubber – and it may have been a win if Dayne Beams had kicked straight late in the game.

The Pies certainly needed the week off to recover, because several players have been carrying injuries during the latter stages of the season. Nick Maxwell (thumb), Leon Davis (hamstring), Ben Reid (groin) and Chris Tarrant (ankle) are among the players to have struggled and all will benefit from the rest. And Dale Thomas will come back into the side after a two-week suspension.

But there’s no doubt the Hawks will give this one a red-hot crack. In 2008, they proved they have no fear against the top sides when they beat the Cats in the Grand Final.

Tactically, it’ll be a fascinating battle: Collingwood’s fearsome forward press against Hawthorn’s keepings off.

For the Hawks to win, they must control the tempo of the game and deny the Pies’ runners, such as Swan, Thomas, Shaw and O’Brien, the chance to move the ball quickly into Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes up forward. They must also win the clearances and contested ball in the midfield, which will allow them to pump the footy deep inside forward 50 to Franklin and Cyril Rioli.

However, you simply can’t tip against Collingwood, who has clearly been the best team all season.

The Magpies have the Hawks covered in the most important area of the ground – down back. Against the Cats, Gibson, Ryan Schoenmakers and company looked susceptible to the high ball. But the likes of Ben Reid, Chris Tarrant and Maxwell work so well as a group that they never look vulnerable in defence. Between them, they’ll be able to curtail Franklin’s influence.

And the Pies should be too good in the midfield. Swan, Pendlebury and Luke Ball are all in their best form of the season. Add Thomas back into the mix on Friday night, and you’ve got a damn good centreline.

Hawthorn will challenge Collingwood, but expect the latter to have a little too much class.

BEST BET:
Collingwood by 1-24 ($3.30)

Geelong v West Coast Eagles: Saturday 24/9 – 2.20pm at MCG.
The AFL’s finals stalwart over recent seasons has the chance to progress through to their fourth grand final in five years. It won’t be easy though.

RECENT FORM:
Great teams seem to find another gear when challenged. Geelong found that gear in the first week of the finals.

The Cats mounted a stunning four-goal burst in a five-minute period in the third term to help them seal a 31-point victory over the Hawks. They wound back the clock to the glory days of 2007-09, moving the ball quickly through the corridor and showing off tremendous skills by hand and foot. Steve Johnson starred in the finals spotlight, booting 1.4 from 27 touches and seven marks, while big forwards James Podsiadly, Tom Hawkins and Brad Ottens booted seven goals between them on a night that didn’t suit big boys. The only negative to come out of the game was the knee injury to young gun forward Daniel Menzel, who ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament in the third term and will miss a fair chunk of 2012.

West Coast’s remarkable ‘Cinderella story’ will have another enthralling chapter.

The Eagles snatched their first finals victory since 2006, defeating Carlton by three points in a classic and thrilling semi-final at Patersons Stadium. With his side desperately needing a spark, Daniel Kerr ignited the Eagles’ fightback with a brilliant second term, showing the poise that once made him an elite midfielder. He looked a class above the other players on the ground and finished with 27 possessions and eight clearances. Mark Nicoski caused the Blues the most headaches up forward, restricting the dangerous Chris Yarran to five first-half touches, while booting three clever goals himself. Dean Cox was also important, spending the majority of the night in the ruck and amassing 35 hit-outs, 19 touches and a goal to comprehensively outplay opponent Robbie Warnock. Scott Selwood significantly restricted Chris Judd’s output, while Matty Priddis was influential at the stoppages with 27 touches.

WHO WINS?
These two teams played off in two Grand Finals (1992 and 1994), which the Eagles won both. When they last met this season the Eagles got the jump and led by six goals at half-time before the 2007 and 2009 premiers roared home but fell just short. What will this finals instalment have?

The older and wiser Geelong players would’ve really enjoyed the weekend off. However, sometimes a lack of game time and fitness can be a disadvantage.

No doubt the Eagles would be better off for their qualifying final run against Collingwood at the MCG in the opening week of the finals. Their younger players would’ve learned plenty that day and will be keen to replicate their attack on the footy.

It must be great to be a West Coast player at the moment. The vibe around the club seems to be extremely positive, while supporters are excited and optimistic about their chances. There is a genuine belief about this team.

However, the Eagles know the job is far from done.

What will be interesting to see is if the two Selwoods – West Coast’s Scott and Geelong’s Joel – clash in the midfield. As mentioned previously, Scott, the best tackler in the competition this season, is in stellar form at the moment after restricting Carlton superstar Chris Judd to an uncharacteristic 17 touches. Joel, the Cats’ best midfielder, could be feeling some unique brotherly love come Saturday afternoon.

Overall, the Cats and the Eagles teams match up well. They both boast elite midfields, mobile ruckmen, strong marking forwards and All Australian defenders.

But Geelong has earned the right to play off in the Grand Final and seem the more logical tip here.

The Cats are primed. They are fresh, fit and have genuine competition for spots. Joel Corey will replace the unlucky Menzel, while there are a number of other players knocking on match committee’s door.

We mustn’t forget Eagles stars Kerr, Cox, Nic Naitanui and Josh Kennedy are all under injury clouds too, while the rest of the team could still be feeling the effects of the brutal encounter with Carlton. And also the fact they haven’t won at the MCG for a couple of years makes it tougher to tip the West Australians.

The Eagles obviously have a chance but the Cats are a more complete team. Even if the Eagles can stick with them for the first half, the week’s rest should mean the Cats will wear them down in the end.

Geelong is in sensational shape and is back to its best. Coach Chris Scott has his boys trained to the minute and they should win reasonably easily.

BEST BET:
Geelong line -29.5 ($2.00)

2011 AFL Preliminary Finals Video Betting Preview

www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuNu7OEPs-A

Geelong is a hot option with punters for the Grand Final as well as the Flag with Hawthorn gaining favour as a wildcard now that they have secured their Preliminary Final spot.  TAB Sportsbet reported a $100,000 bet on Geelong at $1.40 to make the Grand Final.  TAB Sportsbet’s Matt Jenkins noted that the gap between Collingwood and Geelong is closing with the Pies placed at $1.85 then $1.90 and now at $1.95 and with Geelong at $2.75 down to $2.50 and now $2.35.

Sportingbet Australia also reported similar wagers with a bet of $50,000 at $1.40 for Geelong to make the Grand Final.  Michael Sullivan of Sportingbet Australia believes the Cats seem to be looking better and better as potential finalists.

Eskander’s Betstar saw an increase in activity for Geelong with a $60,000 bet at $1.27 for the Cats to beat the Eagles on Saturday.  Alan Eskander also believes that Hawthorn stand a better chance of beating Collingwood in the Preliminary Final than West Coast has of beating the Cats.

Who could have predicted in the early part of the season that West Coast would now be potentially looking at a Grand Final match after their performance in the first four rounds.  With their wooden spooner status in 2010 and opening odds of $67 at the start of the season, their current placement would seem an unlikely feat.  They only barely beat North Melbourne and Port Adelaide and lost to Sydney and Hawthorn in rounds 1 – 4 but an impressive turn around sees them currently sitting pretty with odds of $13 for the flag.

Chris Judd is still the hot favourite for the Brownlow, according to Centrebet’s Neil Evans.  Evans reported that the bets are continuing for Judd who is currently placed at $1.57.  Adam Goodes is also seen as a potential triple Brownlow medallist and the only other major contender at $5 down from $26.

AFL SEMI FINALS  HIGHLIGHTS

Below we have highlights of the semi finals between Hawthorn and Sysdney Swans and West Coast Eagles and Carlton.

Hawthorn V Sydney

19.8.122 -- 13.8.86

www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWrdlPrxEzQ

West Coast V Carlton

15.11.101 -- 15.8.98

www.youtube.com/watch?v=gii2x94IvWc

Hawthorn vs Sydney
West Coast vs Carlton

Last weekend two teams Essendon and StKilda were eliminated in the Elimination finals and we now down to 6 teams. Collingwood and Geelong have progressed to the Preliminary Finals while this weekend we  have the AFL Semi Finals. Below we have the AFL Semi Finals betting preview by Sportingbet.

Hawthorn v Sydney: Friday 16/9 – 7.45pm at MCG.
Expect a fascinating tactical contest at the home of footy on Friday night as these two teams vie to get the game on their own respective terms.

RECENT FORM:
You’ve got to take your opportunities in finals matches – Hawthorn didn’t do that last Friday night.

The Hawks have struggled to regroup after their disappointing 31-point loss to Geelong – their seventh consecutive loss to the blue and white hoops. They were smashed in contested ball and gave away too many goals from stoppages. Their short kicking strategy failed in the wet against the alert Cats. Perhaps the biggest talking point from the game though was the injury to star full-forward Lance Franklin, who kicked 4.3 on the night. Franklin jarred his knee when he landed awkwardly in a marking contest and the Hawks won’t know until match day whether he’ll be fit. On a positive note, Isaac Smith was great off a wing, finishing with one goal from 24 touches.

It was a case of new coach, same story for Sydney last weekend.

The Swans scored their first win over St Kilda at Etihad Stadium since 2000 on Saturday night, eventually running out 25-point winners. The Saints kicked four consecutive goals in the third term, but the Swans, as they always do, showed resilience and pulled away. While St Kilda had more disposals and more inside 50’s for the match, the Swans had more class and fitness towards the end of the game. They were brilliantly led by co-captains Jarrad McVeigh and Adam Goodes, who finished with 26 and 25 possessions respectively, while Ryan O’Keefe booted four goals from 21 touches, five inside 50’s and six tackles in a best-on-ground performance.

WHO WINS?
Pre-finals, tipsters would’ve had little hesitation picking the winner of this game. But after last weekend’s results, anything is possible.

The Hawks came into September as the ‘sleeping giants’, but after one game, they’re in danger of going out in straight sets, which would be unjust considering the season they’ve had.

As they have all season, injuries are killing the Hawks. Not only is Franklin unlikely to play, but there are injury concerns over Luke Hodge (thigh) and Max Bailey (calf), both crucial players in the team’s set-up.

Conversely, there’s no doubt the Swans still have that competitive edge and ruthlessness at the footy that made them such a feared finals opponent under Paul Roos. And the fact they’ve progressed to the second week of the finals without Daniel Bradshaw and Craig Bolton – their full-forward and full-back – under a first-year coach makes their achievement even more remarkable.

To beat the Swans, Hawthorn will need to lift in two areas: contested ball and defence. The Cats smashed the Hawks in the contested possession count on Friday night – a stat Sydney is ranked first in. And Geelong’s long kicking inside forward 50 exposed the Hawks’ thin defence, particularly young Ryan Schoenmakers.

Once again, Shane Mumford and Goodes will hold the key to a Sydney victory. Mumford is perhaps the most in-form ruckman in the competition and will look to exploit an injured Bailey. Goodes, who will be playing his 300th game, has been in near career-best form over the past three weeks, averaging 28 possessions and two goals per game.

Perhaps the most important match-up will be between Cyril Rioli and Nick Smith. Rioli was clearly not fit against the Cats, evident by his substandard tally of 11 possessions. At the other end of the confidence spectrum, Smith restricted St Kilda’s Stephen Milne to just one goal from 14 disposals. Expect Smith to spend the majority of the game on Rioli, as the latter is expected to play most of the game deep in the goal square.

However, it’s too hard to go past the Hawks, mainly because so many players will be keen to bounce back after last weekend’s performance. Premiership players Rioli, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis and Shaun Burgoyne all had less than 20 touches against the Cats and will be desperate to make amends on Friday night.

Hawthorn also has history on its side. Only two of the 22 losing qualifying final teams since 2000 have failed to bounce back in the semi-finals (Port Adelaide in 2001 and West Coast in 2007).

Despite Mumford’s inevitable dominance and the motivation of Goodes’ 300th game, the Hawks should be able to get the game on their terms and lift in the contested situations.

BEST BET:
Hawthorn by 1-39 ($2.15)

West Coast Eagles v Carlton: Saturday 17/9 – 5.50pm at Patersons Stadium.
All the pressure will be on the home side when these two proud and prestigious clubs lock horns on Saturday night.

RECENT FORM:
Despite losing by 20 points, West Coast lost no admirers against Collingwood last weekend.

The Eagles were 26 points behind the Magpies at three-quarter time, but produced a brave revival to reduce the deficit to just seven points late in the last term. In the end, they were probably a tad outclassed, with costly misses to young players Luke Shuey and Scott Selwood proving costly. The Eagles were led superbly by ruckman Nic Naitanui, who finished with 31 hit-outs, eight clearances and a goal. Darren Glass beat Chris Dawes, Ewan McKenzie took care of Travis Cloke, Beau Waters made sure Alan Didak had a quiet 200th game and first-year midfielder Andrew Gaff tried his heart out. But the Eagles weren’t able to make the most of their dominance in the hit-outs (50-29) and were thumped in the clearances (53-31).

You could almost hear the sigh of relief from Carlton coach Brett Ratten when the final siren sounded last Sunday.

The Blues achieved what they’d set out to do pre-season – win a final. They recovered from an inaccurate start to record a commanding 62-point victory over Essendon, guaranteeing Ratten another coaching contract. With skipper Chris Judd down on his usual output, Marc Murphy stepped up, accumulating 37 exquisite touches plus six clearances and five scoring assists. Ruckman Robbie Warnock stood up in the absence of Matthew Kreuzer, amassing 38 hit-outs to the Bombers’ 29. While Lachie Henderson shut down Michael Hurley and Mitch Robsinson restricted Dustin Fletcher’s influence.

WHO WINS?
Both teams come into this game with a number of players under injury clouds.

West Coast star duo Daniel Kerr and Dean Cox have been named, but whether they’ll be at their very best is questionable. Kerr missed the Eagles’ game against the Pies last weekend due to a nagging back injury, while Cox was substituted out of the match during the third quarter..

However the Blues haven’t had the same injury luck, with number one draft picks Kreuzer (foot) and Bryce Gibbs (shoulder) failing fitness tests. Despite Warnock’s impressive performance last weekend, Kreuzer would’ve been handy in the ruck and up forward on the big dimensions on Patersons Stadium, while the Blues will miss Gibbs’ accurate disposal off half-back.

But a few players certainly won’t be the difference between the two teams on Saturday night.

There is plenty of upside for the Blues, especially Judd. The skipper only had 19 touches against Essendon last weekend and you can guarantee he won’t be producing a second straight substandard performance. With plenty of incentive to go back to Perth and battle several past premiership teammates with a preliminary final on the line, Judd should be at his peak.

We must also remember Carlton is now over its September hoodoo – a scary thought for the Eagles. The Blues will go in as clear underdogs and will feel they can go for broke as they have nothing to lose now. Look for small forwards like Jeff Garlett, Eddie Betts and Andrew Walker to enjoy the wide open spaces of Subiaco.

However West Coast has had too good a season to drop the ball now.

Throughout this season, the Eagles have proved they are capable of matching and beating the best. They tested their mettle against the best in Collingwood last weekend, playing 11 players who had never played a finals game before. And there’s no doubt the experience those players received on Saturday will put the team in good stead.

The Eagles have had an amazing 2011 campaign and deserve to win a final. They’ll be primed to take advantage of their only home final and their confidence should still be sky-high after running Collingwood close.

With West Coast regaining two of its best players and the Blues missing two of their best players, expect the Eagles to win and book a preliminary final spot.

BEST BET:
West Coast Eagles line -17.5 ($2.00)

2011 AFL Semi Finals Video Betting Preview

www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZAFrQ-g5ZQ

Tab Sportsbet has the odds for the flag at: Collingwood- $1.75; Geelong -- $2.75; Hawthorn -- $15; West Coast -- $15; Carlton -- $17; Sydney -- $21.

Brownlow betting is strongly leaning towards Adam Goodes.  TAB Sportsbet reported some strong bets on Goodes including a $3,000 bet at $34 on Goodes for the Brownlow and Geelong for the flag.  There was also a Goodes – Pendlebury quinella with $500 at $41.  This is now down to $9.  With Goodes still the strongest contender,  there has also been some interest in Gary Ablett and although Centrebet’s Neil Evans does not believe he will win the medal, he is currently placed at $12 with Dane Swan as equal fourth favourite.

Some notable bets on the final game include a Centrebet wager of $300,000 at $1.22 on the Pies to beat West Coast which could see a profit of $66,000 for the lucky punter.  Another impressive wager of $150,000 was placed at $1.23.  Although these large wagers may not look so great for Centrebet there were still around 3,000 other wagers for the Eagles to beat the Pies placed at between $4.15 and $4.30.

Let’s spare a thought for the two unfortunate TAB Sportsbet punters who placed $16,000 and $15,000 respectively, at $1.85 for the combined score in the Cats/Hawks game to exceed 165.5 points.  The final combined score was 165, one point short of their goal.

AFL WEEK 1 FINALS  HIGHLIGHTS

This week we have highlights of the close games between the Magpies and West Coast as well as Saints and Sydney.

Magpies v West Coast

12-10-82 v 9-8-62

www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3vRPHZ6w0s

Saints v Sydney
8-9-57 v 12-10-82

www.youtube.com/watch?v=1G4_wJE1dMo

Click below on the game for updated 2011 AFL Finals Week 1 Betting  odds.

Geelong vs Hawthorn
Collingwood vs West Coast
St Kilda vs Sydney
Carlton vs Essendon

2011 AFL Finals are here and week 1 we have some cracker jack games this weekend with all games in Victoria. Its been a long time since we had so many Victorian teams in the finals and I am sure there will be some big crowds especially the games Geelong and Hawthorn as well as the Blues and the Dons. Below we have the AFL Finals week 1 betting preview by Sportingbet.

Second Qualifying Final, Geelong v Hawthorn: Friday 9/9 – 7.45pm at MCG
The forecast is for a chilly, wet and windy Friday night at the ‘G. But once these players hit the hallowed turf, the contest will be hotter than a Jennifer Hawkins photo shoot.

RECENT FORM:
If pundits doubt, knock your opposition out – that was the theory Geelong used last weekend.

The Cats made a bold statement one week out from the finals, defeating flag favourites Collingwood by a whopping 96 points. Their second quarter was mesmerising, booting 10.1 to 1.0 to put the result beyond doubt. The Cats’ intensity around the stoppages and use of the corridor exposed the Pies. Paul Chapman and Andrew Mackie had their best games for the season, while the efforts of young boys Daniel Menzel (five goals from 10 marks), Allen Christensen (three second-term goals) and Mitch Duncan (26 possessions) would’ve impressed coach Chris Scott immensely.

No doubt Hawthorn has been the AFL’s sleeping giant of 2011, receiving little praise for its 18 wins.

The Hawks come into the finals series with eight consecutive victories up their sleeve. Their latest victory over Gold Coast by nine points was far from convincing, but it still would’ve given them great confidence, seeing eight of their best 10 players were rested. Fringe player Cameron Bruce put his hand up for finals selection with 24 touches and five inside 50’s, while Luke Breust booted five goals to take his season tally to 30 from 16 matches.

WHO WINS?
With over 70,000 people expected to pack the MCG, this one is going to be a huge encounter. It could also be the most physical contest of the weekend.

Hawthorn is due for a win against Geelong. Since the infamous 2008 Grand Final, the Cats have won the past six encounters between these two teams. However, all of those were by less than 20 points. Five were in single digits.

Both teams have big bodied midfielders, who have had plenty of finals experience between them. Therefore match-up between Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel and Cameron Ling and Sam Mitchell, Brad Sewell and Jordan Lewis will be crucial.

The cornerstone of the Hawks’ game plan is their ability to win the contested ball. Vice-captain Lewis recently said the team is more aggressive and unsociable this season than it was in it premiership year of 2008. Expect nothing less on Friday night.

However, what looks like getting Geelong over the line on Friday night is its defence. As coaches say, forwards win finals matches, but defenders save finals matches.

The Cats have the troops to stop Lance Franklin and Cyril Rioli. Harry Taylor and Tom Lonergan should contain Franklin, while Corey Enright and David Wojcinski are good enough to stop Rioli. And if the Cats trap the ball in their forward half, they won’t even have to worry about the Hawks’ indigenous stars.

After defeating the Hawks and the Magpies twice this season, the Cats will have the confidence to win this one.

BEST BET:
Geelong by 1-24 ($3.25)

First Qualifying Final, Collingwood v West Coast Eagles: Saturday 10/9 – 2.20pm at MCG.
In 2010, one of these teams finished first on the ladder and won the premiership. The other finished 16th and ‘won’ the wooden spoon. Who would’ve thought they’d be meeting each other in a qualifying final 12 months later?

RECENT FORM:
Surely Collingwood’s 96-point loss last round was an aberration – surely.

There’s no doubt the Magpies played with the first weekend of the finals at the forefront of their minds. On numerous occasions, experienced players missed crucial tackles, went into contests half-hearted and were careless with the footy. Coach Mick Malthouse rightly vented his frustration at half-time, but after such a philosophical post-match press conference, you get the feeling he wasn’t too concerned. After all, when you put Scott Pendlebury on the bench for 10 minutes after he gathered 14 touches in the first quarter, then play the vulnerable Leigh Brown down back and Cameron Wood up forward, the care factor was obviously low.

West Coast comes to Melbourne in better shape than Miranda Kerr two weeks after she gave birth.

The Eagles will host a final at some stage over the next month after finishing their resurgent home-and-away campaign with 11 wins from their past 12 matches. They had a thumping 95-point victory over Adelaide last weekend, with Chris Masten starring for the second consecutive week. The main reason behind the Eagles’ resurrection this season has been the form of their older and more experienced players. But that’s also helped young men like Luke Shuey, Andrew Gaff, Jack Darling and Scott Selwood develop into key players.

WHO WINS?
How would the Eagles have been feeling after last Friday night’s result? Would they have been pleased the Pies went down so convincingly? Or scared at the thought of how could they bounce back? Perhaps the latter.

The last time these two teams played, Collingwood defeated West Coast by 52 points. However, the Eagles were only just realising how good they were and they’ll fancy themselves in two key areas come Saturday.

Their forward line is tall and menacing. Guys like Quinten Lynch, Darling and Josh Kennedy, plus midsized forwards Mark LeCras and Mark Nicoski, have bamboozled numerous backlines throughout the season. They’re ranked equal ninth in the competition for marks taken inside forward 50, but their ability to compete in the air, bring the ball to ground then chase rebounding defenders is invaluable.

Some think the combination of Cox and Nic Naitanui is the best the game has ever seen. Cox has played every game this season, averaging the most disposals, marks, clearances and goals of any ruckman in the competition. While the raw and freakishly athletic Naitanui has given his midfielders first use of the footy at stoppages.

However, Collingwood has what it takes to counteract the Eagles’ strengths.

Ben Reid is a lock for the centre half-back spot in this year’s All-Australian team and is more than capable of shutting down one of the Eagles’ tall forwards. Add Chris Tarrant, Heath Shaw, Nick Maxwell and Leon Davis to that side and the Pies’ defence looks rock solid.

Collingwood’s midfield is intelligent and classy too. Before Darren Jolly arrived at the club, they were forced to read taps from opposition ruckman and win clearances themselves. Therefore likes of Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and Luke Ball will not be intimidated by Cox and Naitanui.

Don’t worry Pies fans – your team hasn’t lost its invincibility. Remember, the Pies lost to Hawthorn in Round 22 last year then went on to win the flag. Sometimes a loss so close to the finals is the best thing for a team.

West Coast will give it a good crack, but Collingwood should be too classy in the end.

BEST BET:
Collingwood line -31.5 ($2.00)

Second Elimination Final, St Kilda v Sydney Swans: Saturday 10/9 – 7.20pm at Etihad Stadium.
Want to witness two in-form teams go head-to-head? Want to see finals footy at its best? Want to get out of Melbourne’s cold weather and watch a game under a roof? Then look no further than Etihad Stadium on Saturday night.

RECENT FORM:
Three weeks into this season, St Kilda seemed shot. Eight weeks in, St Kilda was shot. Now, St Kilda is far from shot and is about play off in an elimination final. Amazing.

You’ve got to admire what the Saints have achieved this season. They won 11 of their past 14 home-and-away games to finish in sixth position and earned themselves a home final. Their 20-point win over Carlton was impressive as they suffocated and denied the Blues of any time and space, particularly in their forward line. Also, in a somewhat positive sign, the Saints won the match without big contributions from Nick Riewoldt and Nick Dal Santo.

Sydney’s another team that comes into the final with good form and supreme confidence.

The Swans’ humiliating loss to Richmond in Round 20 was perhaps the loss they needed to have. Since then, they’ve won their past three matches, Geelong, Brisbane and, most importantly, St Kilda. There has been a distinct change in the Swans’ game plan over recent weeks, reverting back to old-fashioned one-on-one footy, rather than guarding space. Adam Goodes, Shane Mumford and Rhyce Shaw have all stepped over the past three weeks too.

WHO WINS?
The common perception is that these two teams have plenty in common. In reality, they don’t.

Out of the entire competition, St Kilda is ranked fifth for disposals, while Sydney is ranked 16th. But the Swans average the most contested possessions per game, whereas the Saints average the least. St Kilda is ranked fifth for marks and the Swans are ranked last. However Sydney averages the most clearances and St Kilda averages the least.

Most believe Goodes and Mumford are the keys to Sydney winning this game. But perhaps its biggest wildcard on Saturday night will be Gary Rohan. The 20-year-old has been in terrific touch over the past fortnight, booting five goals from 12 and 16 touches respectively. With electric pace and a large trick bag, Rohan seems like he’s born for September.

But the Saints have their own wildcard. Last weekend, Stephen Milne showed why opposition teams can’t afford to give him a lot of space. The small forward only had nine touches, but three of them were goals. Milne’s record in finals is appalling. It’s time to stand up ‘tip rat’!

Sydney will have plenty of motivation to win this game. In last year’s semi-final, the Swans surrendered a five-goal lead to the Bulldogs and wasted golden opportunity to go through to the next round. That loss hurt the club – and it wants revenge.

However it’s hard to ignore the home ground advantage here. The Saints will thrive at Etihad Stadium, the ground they play better than any other team in the competition.

BEST BET:
St Kilda by 1-24 ($3.25)

Carlton v Essendon: Sunday 11/9 – 2.40pm at MCG.
With two traditional rivals – who downright don’t like each other – going head-to-head, the MCG is set to turn into an electricity power plant on Sunday afternoon with so much buzz around.

RECENT FORM:
Two losses to two top eight teams in the past fortnight was not the way Carlton wanted to go into the first week of the finals.

The Blues played with caution and little flare – probably because they had nothing to play for – against St Kilda last weekend, eventually going down by 20 points. They only kicked nine goals from 424 possessions and laid only 42 tackles (they’ve averaged 70 per game this season). On a positive note though, big Setanta o’hAilpan booted four goals in a lone hand effort up forward, while Chris Yarran’s dare and dash off half-back kept the Blues in the game.

Will Essendon be advantaged or disadvantaged by the bye last weekend? Only time will tell.

Nonetheless, 2011 has been a rollercoaster yet successful season for the Bombers. Preseason, no one expected them to feature in the finals. But they’ve proven almost everyone wrong. The Bombers have won more games this season than in any other year for the past seven. A big reason behind that is due to the form of skipper Jobe Watson and the emergence of young midfielders such as Jake Melksham, Ben Howlett, David Zaharakis and the 2011 Rising Star Dyson Heppell.

WHO WINS?
When these two teams meet, literally anything is possible.

Normally, it’s a close encounter (see the draw in Round 4 this season). However Carlton broke the trend in Round 18, thumping the Bombers by 74 points. Eddie Betts kicked eight goals, Andrew Walker took a contender for mark of the year and Chris Judd played his finest game in a Carlton jumper.

But surely we won’t see a repeat of that on Sunday.

Out of all eight teams in the finals, Carlton is undoubtedly under the most pressure. Sunday’s match will be its third consecutive elimination final, and it’ll be keen to make sure it won’t be it’s third consecutive elimination final loss.

Two men who can help the Blues avoid defeat is Betts and Jeff Garlett. Both players have been out of form over the past fortnight, booting just two goals between them. It’s no secret Essendon don’t have the small defenders to go with Betts and Garlett, so both men need to expose that flaw.

However, the Bombers will know they’re risk and reward game style makes the Blues nervy. They know they match up well against the Blues. They know they have nothing to lose. They know they may have a mental edge.

The key for Essendon is to stop Carlton’s midfield. The Blues are ranked second in the league for clearances, so the Bombers must restrict the influence of Judd, Marc Murphy and Mitch Robinson around the stoppages. And if Watson can get his hands on the footy, they’re halfway to victory.

But the Blues have earned too much respect this season to drop this game. The two finals defeats to Brisbane (2009) and Sydney (2010) will drive them to make it third time lucky.

Carlton is ready to take the next step.

BEST BET:
Carlton by 1-39 ($2.20)

2011 AFL Finals Week 1 Video Betting Preview

www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrZW4cjp-LA