Norm Smith is a name inextricably linked with the AFL grand final.
Every year, the Norm Smith medal is awarded to the player adjudged best on ground in the league’s premiership decider.
It was named in honour of a man who knew more about grand finals than just about anyone else.
Smith won four premierships as a player with Melbourne and six as a coach.
With the Red Fox at the helm, the Demons’ famous club song It’s a Grand Old Flag was on near-perpetual repeat.
But midway through 1965, the music suddenly died.
In one of the biggest shocks in Australian football history, the man who was later named the league’s coach of the century was sacked over a petty dispute with the club’s administration.
Loading
After a furious outcry, Smith was soon reinstated – but the damage was done. The curse of Norm Smith was born.
The Demons’ 1964 flag won by Smith and his then-captain Ron Barassi remains their last. Five years ago, they watched enviously as the only club to have been waiting longer, the Western Bulldogs, finally broke their own premiership drought.
For as long as they’d waited, there was a sense that the Bulldogs’ breakthrough 2016 flag might have arrived ahead of schedule. A bit like Hawthorn immediately after their surprise 2008 premiership, they have since suffered from difficult second album syndrome.
But now, with their young pups all grown up, the Dogs might be better placed than anyone to succeed Richmond as the league’s next dynasty.
Their chief rival for that mantle? Well, it’s probably today’s grand final opponent: Melbourne.
Both teams are brimming with talent. The Demons are driven by Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney, and Max Gawn. The Bulldogs are fuelled by Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Tom Liberatore, and Josh Dunkley.
Any of them can turn a game on a dime.
So, it’s in the middle that these teams are most formidable, but each in its own unique way.
It’s tough to keep the Bulldogs on the leash
The Dogs are the league’s best team at scoring from dead-ball situations, with their midfield spread almost impossible for opposition sides to contain.
Loading
Earlier this season, the Dogs were using a tighter inside midfield rotation than any other side. This small “team within a team” spent so much time together that they became intimately familiar with each other’s movements and capabilities. They seemingly knew what their teammates were going to do before they did.
But as injuries piled up, the Bulldogs were forced to expand their rotation. The results were mixed.
In their two games against Melbourne this year, the Dogs were only able to score two goals from centre bounces. The Demons scored four goals two. The Dogs had more success around the ground, however, outscoring the Dees 54 to 28 from stoppages. This is a good indication of their respective strengths.
Loading
During the finals, the Dogs have welcomed back several best-22 players from injury, including midfield keys Dunkley and Adam Treloar. That’s enabled them to again tighten up their rotations. The flow-on effects have been immense, such as releasing Bailey Smith to become a dangerous forward.
“When [having a tight rotation] is working for you, you’re reticent and hesitant to change it too much,” Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge told ABC Sport during the season.
When heading inside their forward 50, the Bulldogs like to vary the pace of their ball movement. They tend to attack via the left flank, using the boundary as a launchpad.
Data source: Josh Elliott
)Whereas most sides will patiently assess their options before making an attacking foray, the Dogs generally prefer controlled chaos. They use quick handballs to play on at speed and create uncertainty in the minds of defenders. They seem to relish keeping their opponents off-balance.
Loading
The Dogs scored four goals one by using this tactic in their preliminary final win over Port Adelaide. In their two games against Melbourne this year, they kicked several goals by catching the Demons’ backline flat-footed.
Data source: Josh Elliott
)They also like to probe opposition defences with tricky angled kicks and crosses to the hotspot. Aaron Naughton provides them with one of the best bail-out targets in the game. He’s dangerous in any pack situation.
Heading into this season, the Dogs’ attack was struggling to rack up big scores. That’s no longer an issue. They’ve become more than the sum of their parts.
The Dogs’ bold offensive strategy can sometimes leave them exposed to counterattacks. Of this season’s finalists, they’ve conceded the second-most points per game from forward turnovers.
Loading
“It is one of the areas of the game where you trust your players to be somewhat unselfish, but you do open yourself up defensively,” Beveridge told ABC Sport. “You don’t have many layers behind it if it doesn’t work out.”
When the Bulldogs have time to set up their zone, however, it can be extremely hard to penetrate. They aim to stop their opponents from using the corridor, either forcing them to switch the ball or kick it long and high down the line.
When the Bulldogs came from seventh to win the 2016 flag, it was a near-perfect example of a team rising at just the right time. This season has been a different journey. The Dogs spent much of the year in the top two before a spate of injuries saw them drop to fifth by the end of the home-and-away rounds. In the finals, the Dogs have benefited from their returning stars — and just a little bit of luck.
Demonic pressure
The Demons endured two tough years after making the 2018 preliminary finals. Few doubted the talent on their well-constructed list, but something was clearly holding them back from making the leap from mid-tier battlers to genuine contenders.
During the last off-season, coach Simon Goodwin and his staff decided they needed to seriously address their biggest weakness: their pressure on the ball carrier.
“We’re certainly trying to play a certain way,” Goodwin told ABC Sport. “You have to be good in all phases of the game to be successful, but playing a front half brand is certainly what we want.”
The Demons focused on locking up teams in their own half while maintaining a deep safety net in case their press was ever breached.
Melbourne’s defence starts in attack, with small forwards Kysaiah Pickett and Alex Neal-Bullen bringing enormous pressure to bear on their opposing backmen. Neal-Bullen and Pickett are top 10 for tackles inside 50 per game – a metric in which Melbourne leads the league overall.
Loading
The Demons’ taller forwards are no slouches at the pressure game either, and they are adept at bringing the ball down to the right spots when they can’t complete marks.
Loading
Melbourne has scored the fourth-most points per game this season from front-half opposition turnovers (the Bulldogs have scored the most). At the same time, the Demons have conceded the fewest points of any side on counterattacks. On the rare occasions opposing backmen are able to break through the Demons’ press, they invariably face more obstacles as they look up the field.
Goodwin revealed their philosophy after their preliminary final win over Geelong.
“Clearly, we base our game around the contest and our ability to defend,” he said. “But I think you saw tonight that there is a potency in the way we attack and we can hit the scoreboard.”
Data source: Josh Elliott
)The Demons boast the league’s most effective all-ground defence. Their players excel at reading the flight of the ball, working in concert to deny opposition forwards any space to get free.
Loading
Anchored by All-Australians Steven May and Jake Lever, the Demons have conceded the AFL’s fewest points per opposition inside 50 this season. It means teams need to get creative to beat them.
Due to the dominating presence of Melbourne ruckman Max Gawn, opposition sides often choose to play an extra man at stoppages. This enables the Demons to deploy their spare player behind the ball, helping to defuse many attacks before they even start.
Data source: Josh Elliott
)The Demons can play either quick or slow, but their priority is to ensure a solid set-up behind the ball. Sometimes that means they won’t have the numbers up forward to capitalise on an initial foray but they’ll usually be well placed to force a secondary attack.
In the balance
The Demons and Dogs have met twice this season for one win apiece. Both games were relatively tight and today’s third and most important encounter is likely to be the same.
On paper, the teams match up well. Their strengths overlap in some areas, particularly in the contest. Their round 19 clash involved 62 throw-ins: the most of any game this year. It could be the little things — the one-percenters and off-ball efforts — that prove to be decisive.
Both sides play strong team defence, underwritten by constant communication between their players. Both are fired by a strong internal belief and by coaches who have engaged and empowered their playing groups.
One side has already emerged from a record drought, yet thirsts for more success. The other is still wandering in the football desert but can spy a premiership oasis on the horizon. Will the sons of the west win way out west, or will this be the year the Demons finally break the curse of Norm Smith?
Source: AFL NEWS ABC
